With the shocks of 2003 behind us, 2004 should be a better year for the Canadian economy with some caveats. The BSE situation continues to haunt cattle farmers due to the discovery of a single American case that originated in Alberta. The dollar’s rise will continue to hamper exports, but the pace of the US economic expansion could outweigh the negative effects of the dollar. Recoveries in Europe and Japan coupled with the appreciation of the Canadian dollar against the yen, pound and other international currencies will not buoy the export-oriented Canadian economy. An uncertain geopolitical situation and its implications for crude oil, the upcoming US presidential election and a new prime minister for Canada will all shape the direction of economic growth in 2004. Private sector forecasters expect Canada will see growth averaging 3.0% in 2004 with the top performers being Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador.
Employment for 2004 is forecast to grow at a slower
rate than in 2003 and the unemployment rate is expected to fall modestly.
